Afghanistan- Modi has distanced India from the Taliban
Syed Ali Mujtaba
In India, it's being fiercely debated that why the BJP
government did reach out to the Taliban when every other stakeholder was
talking to them for quite some time? US,
Russia, China, and Iran is in a much better position to deal with the Taliban
and address their concerns, whereas the Modi government’s domestic agenda has
tied India’s hand to reach out to the Taliban.
Sometimes after 2014, the US and other prominent countries
changed their perception towards the Taliban. They realized that the center of
gravity rests on these Pashtun guerrillas and so they started talking with the
Taliban so that they can exit from Afghanistan.
However, the BJP government’s myopic view of the situation in
Afghanistan kept them opposing the Taliban. India continued supporting the puppet
government in Afghanistan without having plan ‘B’ in place, in case, if the
current government falls down.
Indian response to the developments in Afghanistan has
exposed the chinks in the Modi government’s foreign policy. His arrogance in statecraft
is singularly responsible for putting India into the most disadvantaged
situation in Afghanistan.
What does the BJP government’s opposition to the Taliban has
done to India? The first and foremost is
the threat to India’s investments made in Afghanistan. India has invested over
3 billion USD in Afghanistan. It's close to two decades now that India has been
a partner in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. It has built infrastructures in
education, medical, agriculture, power generation fields. India has constructed
a new Parliament building in Kabul. It engaged in constructing the Shahtoot Dam
on the Kabul River. India has also built roads, schools, universities,
hospitals, and sports stadiums in different parts of Afghanistan. All these
were with good intention to develop Afghanistan.
However, the question remains, why India did not make any
plan to protect its interests if the US and the planted government leave the
scene. India was relying on these two fragile sources of strength, hoping US cover
will remain forever and the puppet government will serve its interests. Both,
these pillars that India thought were its strength have been blown away by the
winds of change sweeping across Afghanistan, leaving India in no man’s land.
The Modi government’s ill-conceived foreign policy towards
Afghanistan has numerous impacts on India. The first price for not negotiating
with the Taliban is likely to make India forfeit all its investments made in
Afghanistan.
The second harm the BJP government did by stonewalling the
Taliban is it has put the lives of many Indians at risk in Afghanistan.
Recently, the Taliban had displayed its anti-Indian intentions clear, killing
an Indian photojournalist in a cold blood manner. India has little option than
to pull out its national from Afghanistan. It has been organizing operation
‘Airlift’ to take out its citizen from Afghanistan.
The most interesting question that arises here is; whether
the BJP government gives shelter/ asylum/citizenship to people who were in the
Afghan government, with whom India had been engaging for 20 years or so while
doing the reconstruction work in Afghanistan. If India does not protect them
then it will bring a bad name to the country and in case if India welcomes such
persecuted Muslims how will they bypass the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA). If
that happens, will the BJP lose the sheen of its religious nationalism
project?
The third fall out of the Taliban’s hold on Afghanistan will
be on India’s internal security. India cannot stop the mushrooming of the
terror groups in Afghanistan who are furious at the anti-Islam- anti-Muslim
agenda being pursued in India. In such a case, new factions of terror groups will
emerge in Afghanistan on which
India will have no control. Many may be infiltrating inside India and
it’s likely that terror activities in Kashmir may increase.
The fourth fall out of
Taliban control of Afghanistan will be that they will make India a
transit route to smuggle their drugs to foreign destinations. Taliban are bound
to increase the production of drugs to generate more revenue to run the
government and with the golden triangle being heavily guarded, it’s Indian
waters that may become a conduit route for the Afghan drugs to move to the foreign
countries. A treaty with the Taliban could have addressed such issues, but the
BJP government’s arrogance has doomed all such national concerns.
The fifth fall out of India’s ill-conceived foreign policy towards the Taliban is losing all the partners that may have facilitated India to play a role in the Afghan peace process. Now India cannot cut much ice, vis-à-vis Pakistan or China, because of the given relationship with the BJP government with these two countries. A troika has been made with Russia, China Iran, and Pakistan leaving out India. India going into the American camp has lost both Russia and China. Even the US has sidestepped India and has made a deal with Central Asian republics, Afghanistan and Pakistan to keep its interest afloat in that region, where India has no role to play.
Now, when the US-backed Afghan government has fallen, India
is scrambling for reconciliation with the Taliban but all such overtures have
been so far unanswered. It needs to be remembered that the Taliban had reached
out to the Indian diplomats in 2018 in Russia to make friends but India did not
give any weightage.
The former chief of the Taliban’s Doha office; Syed Akbar
Agha has publicly stated that the Taliban are not keen to reconcile with India.
The Taliban leader said; “In fact, we had earlier sent messages of peace and
friendship but India had rebuffed them and now it’s late.”
Another spokesperson for the Taliban in Doha Suhail Shaheen
has commented that after their spectacular victories on the battlefield, India
is changing its colors. Shaheen alleged that India was arming the Afghan
government all along so, “how it’s possible to talk with them when they were
arming the puppet regime? This is contradictory as they with our enemies and
not with us. If they stick to their policy of supporting a government-imposed
on Afghans, then maybe they should be worried about us and not the Taliban.”
It’s no secret that India has provided military equipment
like helicopters, artillery field pieces, small arms, radar, ammunition,
amongst others, to the Afghan government to fight the Taliban. In such a case,
how India can prove its neutrality to the Taliban.
Taliban’s recent statement reaffirms that they are not happy
with India. They have blamed India for
not having an impartial attitude towards them and with the Indian government
taking sides supporting Afghanistan, they have doomed their prospects in
dealing with the Taliban.
As the drama is unfolding drama in Afghanistan and of
Taliban’s victory is keenly watched all over the world, the debate is raging in
India as to who has shot our motherland on its foot.
The responsibility for creating a threat to India squarely
rests on the current government which has put the country in such a situation
that cannot be reversed. After Pakistan and China, the Modi government has made
Afghanistan a new headache for India. The narrative of post-truth India making
of the brand new republic is solely responsible for creating the threats from
Afghanistan. The Modi government’s squinted foreign policy towards Afghanistan
has shot India on its foot. It has made the country limp to search for a
vantage position from where it can deal with a country that has otherwise been
friends with India for long.
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Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. He can be
contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com
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