India Searching for
Space in Afghan Peace Process
Syed Ali Mujtaba
India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishanker was in Iran,
apparently searching space for India in the peace process in Afghanistan. Well
it’s the magnanimity of Iranian leadership to meet India’s Foreign Minister, as
New Delhi is on the list of non-friends, if not enemies. The reason being,
India voting against Iran in the United Nations. India’s desperation over the
developments in Afghanistan is evident because knowing well the facts on the ground, the PMO has sent the External Affairs Minister to go to Tehran and make friends with Iranians.
Why was Iran India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishanker
destination, why not Moscow or Riyadh or UAE? Well, India has lost Moscow’s
cover, since it stopped buying defence equipment from Russia. India has also distanced from Moscow since it abandoned the socialist path and has been following the capitalist path, making anti-working-class laws. India’s
domestic compulsions that have been pushing for making India a Hindu religious
state further distances Russia, as the two countries are not on the same ideological
plane.
India’s open preferences for anti- Islam anti-Muslim agenda
at home do not placate the Wahabis and Salafis brand of Islam of the Mid-East as well.
This leaves India with the option to court Shiite Iran.I think our Minister has forgotten the Iranian fatwa on the Satanic Verses. In his learned vision, Shiite Iran will tolerate Hindus' slurs on Islam and anti-Muslim campaign in India.
Notwithstanding the facts, the fact remains that India wants
to take Iran’s help to protect its interests in Afghanistan. How far Iran will serve India’s wishful interest in
Afghanistan remains to be seen, none the less India’s External Affairs Minister
had gone to Tehran to break the ice, searching for space in the Afghan peace
process.
There is no denying the fact that the US's exit from Afghanistan has brought instability to the
entire region. The geopolitical situation in that region is in flux. The
military vacuum created by the US retreat has moved regional powers to move
into Afghanistan. The idea of a regional
solution to Afghanistan has always had a political appeal, but the divergent
regional strategic vision has limited the peace prospects in Afghanistan.
Even as a sustainable regional consensus remains elusive in Afganistan, Russia,
Pakistan and China have formed a troika to deal with the situation developing in Afghanistan. They have left
India out in the Afghan peace deal, and this has made ‘Viswa-Guru’ running to
Iran, searching for space in the peace process in Afghanistan.
Who are the regional players in the Afghan peace process?
Pakistan - The first and foremost regional
actor is India's arch-rival Pakistan. It was frontline state for the US from 1979
to 1990 and helped the US build the military machine called ‘Mujahedeen’ to oust
the Soviet invaders. It was at the behest of the US; Pakistan created the backup force called the Taliban to
replace the Mujahedeen at a later stage. After the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan in
1994, Pakistan played a key role in placing the Taliban on the hot seat of power in
Kabul. 1994-2001, Taliban rule in
Afghanistan, saw Afghanistan becoming heaven of Anti – American forces, leading to an attack on Twin Tower in New York
on September 11, 2001. This triggered a direct invasion of the US into Afghanistan. Pakistan
was once again made a frontline state by the US in its war against terror. The US was successful in ousting the Taliban and physically supported an Afghan regime that the US placed in
Kabul for the next twenty years. However, having failed to bring stability to Afghanistan, the US bought peace with the Taliban and made an exit from the place it desired to bring enduring freedom. This has made
Pakistan is once again relevant in the Afghan peace deal because it has been handling the Mujahedeen and the Taliban for from last forty years or so.
Iran – Iran is another neighbor that has
close involvement with Afghanistan. This
is because Persian being the court language and well
understood and spoken in Afghanistan all over and second, a large Shia population living in
Northern provinces of Afghanistan. Iran
has been traditionally protecting the interests of its population and most of the ruling elite in Afghanistan are of the Shia sect. Iran can’t forfeit the historical role it has played in the political stability
in Afghanistan.
Tajikistan – Uzbekistan
– Turkmenistan etc. –
These central Asian republics share borders with Afghanistan. They too have
their ethnic population residing in Afghanistan. These multiethnic groups in Afganistan have a support base in central Asian republics. As a result, Tajikstan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan have a decisive role in the future political settlement in Afghanistan.
Russia – Even though Russia is an extra-regional power since 1979 it's been playing a huge role in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
After the 1990s, Russia has been on the Taliban side to
oust the US occupation of Afghanistan. It is well known that Russia has been
providing military assistance to the Taliban to sustain its anti-US military campaign.
Therefore, Russia has a huge interest in shaping the peace process in Afghanistan.
China – China has emerged as a new player
in the peace process in Afghanistan. It wants to enter into the power vacuum left behind by the US. China shares a border with Afghanistan and there are unconfirmed reports that say that it has been training the Taliban, providing them arms and
ammunition to fight against American occupation forces. China offers the Taliban the recognition of its alternative vision of governance that does not conform to the Western model. China is willing to recognize the Taliban
as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan. Just like Myanmar, China is ready to
protect the Taliban regime against any western sanctions. China is aware of its
role as a regional player and has a huge stake in bringing stability to Afghanistan. China's main interest is to make its
belt and road policy run into central Asian republics. It wants China- Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) to be extended beyond Pakistan and through Afghanistan
enter into the central Asian Republics. Besides, China is keen on mining
activity, that’s in abundance in Afghanistan and remains unexplored. All these grand designs of China are quite palatable to the Taliban. They are receptive to the
Chinese investments in Afghanistan as this may bring all-around development to their
country. So, China has a huge stake in peace and stability in Afghanistan.
India- All these factors have been
increasingly pushing India into a geopolitical tight spot in Afghanistan. This
is because the era of prolonged peace in Afghanistan secured by the US military
presence has come to an end. It means new constraints on India’s ability to
operate inside Afghanistan. As such India’s lack of direct physical access to
Afghanistan and that underlines the importance of having effective
regional partners for playing peacemakers.
But who could be India’s regional partners? Certainly Pakistan and
China is ruled out because the current political dispensation in Delhi sees the two countries as enemies of India. As a result, New Delhi is intensifying its engagement with Iran. In fact, India had made great
preparation to hold Afghanistan through Iran, committing to build Chabhar port.
However, India voted against Iran at the United Nations giving weightage to the US over Iran and that has turned to be its undoing. Now, it remains to be seen how much weightage Iran gives to India
to meddle into Afghanistan.
India has invested billions of dollars after the US invasion of Afghanistan. It has constructed a new Parliament building in Kabul. India has also built
dams, roads, schools, universities, hospitals, and sports stadiums in different
parts of Afghanistan. This means India has to gate crash into Afghanistan to safeguard its interests. That is the reason the current leadership in Delhi is courting Iran, expecting it to facilitate India's entry into Afghanistan. However, this is subjected to numerous
ifs and buts.
So, will India lose all its investments in Afghanistan, which run into billions of rupees? Certainly not! India has some history of engaging
Taliban. Indian officials had first direct contact with the Taliban in
2013, when they issued a visa to senior Taliban leader Abdul Salam Zaeef for attending a
conference in Delhi. Further in 2018, some senior Taliban leaders met with Indian representatives in Moscow. Indian officials and Taliban leaders held a meeting in Doha in June 2021. It was reported that the Taliban leader Mullah Baradar was
in contact with former Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who was pushing Russia,
Iran and India to start a dialogue with the Taliban. Taliban group was aware
that India was providing military support to the US-backed Afghan government and it had
warned Delhi to remain impartial. The Taliban leadership had made it clear that they would not interfere in
Kashmir to suit India’s interests.
As a result, India has to rethink its stand on dealing with the Taliban if it likes to protect its
interest in Afghanistan. Since India is in no position to dictate terms to the Taliban it has to evolve a new policy that is different from the current policy of supporting the US-backed Afghan regime. India's new policy should not be based on Pakistan and China’s moves in Afganistan. India
has to acknowledge the fact that it cannot match the reach and depth of Pakistan and China that has land boundaries with Afghanistan.
The good thing is,
Taliban has signaled that it will not be a proxy for anyone and will
pursue its independent policies. This gives India the opportunity to deal
exclusively with the Taliban. Taliban has already given assurance that it will not
support Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups from its soil. It remains to be seen that India gives an assurance to refrain from Muslim bashing that's currently going on to build a new relationship with the
Taliban.
There is no denying the fact Taliban remains a major force to
reckon with in Afghanistan. There cannot be any peace in Afghanistan without
Taliban playing a central role in the Afghan peace process. At the same time,
Taliban cannot rule the whole of Afghanistan without accommodating the interests of
other groups in that country.
If India has to protect its investments in
Afghanistan, it has to directly deal with the Taliban. India has to remain
active and patient watching the evolving situation in Afghanistan. There may be many opportunities for India
that may bacon it from the front door in the Afghan peace process, and this need not
be through Iran. Certainly for this, India has to bottle up its own Taliban!
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Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. He can be
contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com