India-China Showdown looks imminent in LADAK

India-China Showdown looks imminent in LADAK

Syed Ali Mujtaba

India-China showdown in Ladak looks imminent. The current standoff is due to Home Minister Amit Shah's statement made during the debate on abrogation of Article 370 on 5th August 2019, where he made territorial claims over Aksai Chin. China that physically controls the Aksai Chin then objected to India’s Home Minister’s claim and raised its concern in the UN Security Council.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping who met Indian Prime Minister Narandra Modi at Mamallapuram, near Chennai on October 11, 2019  reported to have told Mr Modi to have a joint mechanism with Pakistan to settle the entire gamut of land boundary issues. The Indian leader then gave initial nod to such proposal did not made any forward movement on this.  

Meanwhile, the Indian side is going ahead with its plan of constructing road to have faster access to Aksai Chin that seems to be the reason that infuriated the Chinese.   

Now China wants to cut off all the Indian land access to Aksai Chin. It wants to push the disputed Line of Actual Control LAC, at three different border locations of Ladakh; Lukung Lake and Shyok & Chang- Chenmo River.

The Chinese game plan is to get into the Indian side of lake and rivers by by forcible making intrusion on the LAC with the motive to construct permanent military structures on the Indian side.

Since May 20, 2020, India and China are engaged in negotiations but their several attempts to defuse the situation have failed. The negotiations that were first conducted at the area commanders level and the at a higher level have failed to produce any result.  

In such situation, India and China both are engaged in eye-ball to eye ball confrontation, exploring military options to test themselves. Both the sides are increasing their military presence in the contested region and a war like situation has emerged at a few points in Ladak. Some of the locations are exactly the same spot where 1962 war with China took place. 

Now given military prows of both the countries any such confrontation is going to head anywhere is anybody's guess. China is 10 times financially and militarily superior to India. It can sustain a low intensity war for a long period of time. What it wants is to make India sweat out economically and politically and exhaust all its options and then call it to the negotiating table to cut a deal.

India has few options before going to the table. The first option before India is to take a legal course.  And for this India can go to International Court of Justice or United Nation General Assembly and seek justice. But so far India has shown utter disregard to the UNGA’s resolutions on J&K. It has prevented since last 70 years any outside influence to resolve the Kashmir issue. Now, after unilaterally abrogating Article 370 and making territorial claims over Aksai Chin and over Pakistan Occupied Kashmir can India get any legal protection from international bodies as it may demand to defuse the situation with China?

China will quash any legal course sought by India seeking protection from the international bodies because it holds the veto power along with other P5 countries in the UN Security Council. So, India has actually exhausted its legal options by abrogating the Article 370 and reorganizing the state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories.

Them India is left with diplomatic option and it can engage Russia and America mediate with China to defuse the situation. Even though President Triumph has offered to mediate between India and China standoff but it is sure for sure that Americans will never come to rescue of India because of the political situation prevailing in that country.

Russia may stick its neck into cutting a deal with China but it may demand from India the guarantee to leave the US camp and accept it as the only allay and all-weather friend.

Even if that happens will Xi Jinping listen to Putin and if so at what cost? Any such negotiation with Russia mediating with China on behalf of India may end up with India leaving its claim over Aksai Chin and Chinese withdrawal from the forward position as a done deal. Will India accept such a deal?   

Now in such case what are the other options left for India? Can India go to Pakistan and ask to strike a deal China, its all-weather friend? Such option cannot be ruled out as everything is fair love and war. In such case what will be Pakistan’s demand. Obviously it will ask for Indian side of Kashmir lock stock and barrel. Will India accept such a demand to defuse the military standoff with China?

So it is not in India’s interest to strike any deal involving any third party.  In such case, India has to choose between military confrontation and negotiation directly with the China. India also has to choose if it wants to fight the Covid-19 war or a war with China? It really is a Hobbesian choice for India.

At the moment, it is too early to cast any verdict in this unfolding war like situation. We can only wait and watch the developments as it unravels. Once all this is over, then it will be the time to do a cost benefit analysis of the abrogation of Article 370 and reorganization of the state of Jammu and Kashmir.   

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Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com