The World that would be in Coming Years…
Syed Ali Mujtaba
Welcome to the 4th Industrial
Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential
Age. There are some interesting facts
and figures that predict the future lifestyle and the shape of the unfolding
world. The Artificial Intelligence, health, self-driving and electric cars,
education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs are going to have huge importance to each of
us and each of them are pointers to the things to come. We have to give a considerable thought to them
if we like to negotiate future life style. Here is a sneak preview of the world
that would be in coming years.
Did you think in 1998 that 3
years later you would never take pictures on film again? In 1998, Kodak had
170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few
years, their business model disappeared and they were bankrupt. What happened
to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years and most
people don’t see it coming.
Uber is just a software tool.
They don’t own any cars, but they are now the biggest taxi company in the
world. Airbnb is the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t
own any properties.
Computers become exponentially
better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go
player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. Facebook now has pattern
recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030,
computers will have become ‘more intelligent’ than humans.
In the US, young lawyers already
don’t get jobs. This is because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice, (so
far for more or less basic stuff), within seconds. With 90% accuracy, compared
with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you are studying law, stop
immediately. There will be 90% fewer generalist lawyers in the future; only
specialists will be needed. Further ‘Watson’ already helps nurses diagnose
cancer, four times more accurately than doctors.
70-80% of jobs will disappear in
the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear that
there will be enough new jobs in such a short time. Many currencies will be
abandoned. Bitcoin will become the mainstream this year and might even become
the future default reserve currency.
In 2018 the first self-driving
cars will be offered to the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will
start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
on your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your
destination. You only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive
whilst driving. You will not need to park it and we can transform former
parking spaces into parks.
At present, 1.2 million people
die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every
100,000 kms. With autonomous driving, that will drop to one accident in 10
million km. That will save a million lives each year. Insurance companies will have massive trouble,
because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper. Their
car insurance business model will disappear.
Electric cars will become the
mainstream vehicle around after 2020. Cities will be cleaner and much less
noisy because all cars will run on electricity, which will become much cheaper.
Most traditional car companies
may become bankrupt by taking the evolutionary approach and just building
better cars; while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. The engineers from
Volkswagen and Audi are terrified of Tesla.
Our kids will never get a driver’s license and
will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95%
fewer cars for our future needs.
Real estate values based on
proximity to work-places, schools, etc. will change, because if you can work
effectively from anywhere or be productive while you commute, people will move
out of cities to live in a more rural surroundings.
Solar energy production has been
on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now is having a big impact. Last
year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for
solar will drop so much that almost all coal mining companies will be out of
business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes
cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We
don’t have scarce water in most places; we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if everyone can have as much clean water as they
want, for virtually no cost.
The Tricorder X price will be
announced this year - a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek)
that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and
your breath. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any
diseases. It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet will
have access to world class, low cost, medicine.
The price of the cheapest 3D
printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it
became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started printing 3D shoes.
Spare airplane parts are already 3D-printed in remote airports. The space
station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of
spare parts they used to need in the past.
At the end of this year, new
smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your
feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they have already
3D-printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything
that’s being produced will be 3D-printed.
There will be a 100$ agricultural
robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of
their fields instead of working in them all day. Aeroponics will need much less
water. The first veal produced in a petri dish is now available. It will be
cheaper than cow- produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all
agricultural surfaces are used for rearing cattle. Imagine if we don’t need
that space anymore. There are several start-ups which will bring insect protein
to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled
as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of
eating insects).
As far as health is concerned
right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years
ago, the life span was 79 years, now it is 80 years. The increase itself is
increasing and by 2036, there will be more than a one-year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way beyond 100.
There is already an app called
“moodies” which can tell the mood you are in. By 2020 there will be apps that
can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political
debate where we know whether the participants are telling the truth and when
not!
Further afield, the software has
been launched in Indonesia and will be released it in Arabic, Swahili and
Chinese this summer. The English app will be offered free, so that children in
Africa can become fluent in English within half a year. Software and operating
platforms will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
The cheapest smartphones already
sell at 10$ in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a
smartphone. That means everyone will have much the same access to world class
education. Every child can use Khan Academy for everything he needs to learn at
schools in First World countries.
If you think of a niche you want
to enter, ask yourself: “In the future, do you think we will have that?” And if
the answer is yes, then work on how you can make that happen sooner. If it
doesn’t work via your phone, forget the idea. And any idea that was designed
for success in the 20th century is probably doomed to fail in the 21st century.
There are many more exciting
things waiting to happen. Are we prepared to handle such future shock? If not
the future will overtake you and you maybe repenting not being prepared for the
future?
--
Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist
based in Chennai. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba@yahoo.com. The author
does not claim any responsibility of the content but feel that this needs to be
circulated in the larger public interest.
